CAA: GA News, "FAA forecasts growth for aviation through 2011"

["Stephen Irwin" <stepheni@cwnet.com>]

Friday, March 31, 2000

FAA forecasts growth for aviation through 2011
GA News


WASHINGTON, DC — FAA forecasts through 2011 predict that aviation will see
an increase in aircraft, pilots, passengers and operations.

According to data released here earlier this month at the 25th Annual
Aviation Forecast Conference, the general aviation fleet will grow by
approximately 24,000 aircraft, with piston-powered planes continuing to
comprise the vast majority.

Experimental aircraft are expected to comprise 8.6% of the fleet by 2011, up
from 8.1% in 1999. Rotorcraft will be up 3.9% in 11 years.

The predictions are based on assumptions that business flying will continue
to expand, fueled by the rapid growth in fractional ownership.

The general aviation piston fleet is expected to increase by 14,000
aircraft, totaling 180,180 in 2011.

The single-engine, fixed-wing category will show an annual increase of 0.7%,
from 145,250 last year to 158,400 in 2011.

The Experimental fleet is projected to increase to 19,910, with the “other”
category (gliders, lighter-than air, etc.) growing by 720 to a total of
6,360.

Hours flown by general aviation pilots are expected to increase at an annual
rate of about 2.2%, reaching 38.8 million at the end of the 11-year period.
This larger increase in hours flown than reflected in fleet growth is based
on anticipated greater utilization of aircraft.

The number of active pilots is expected to increase by more than 184,000,
with the number of student pilots increasing 3.4% annually.

The number of air-carrier passengers is expected to grow by 60%. The
all-cargo fleet is forecast to increase by 60% to 1,631 aircraft in 2011.
Regional airlines are also expected to increase their fleets by some 340
aircraft.

Operations using FAA facilities are forecast to increase, with instrument
operations going up 2.2% annually. General aviation instrument operations
will increase about 1.9% annually.

John Rogers, FAA director of the office of policy and plans, said three
issues need to be resolved for the forecasts to be fulfilled: fuel prices,
traffic congestion and technical advancements that permit aircraft to move
from point to point rather than over designated airways.

The future of air transportation depends on a total system, Jim Coyne,
president of the National Air Transportation Association, told several
hundred people who attended the annual meeting. He said there are more than
800 U.S. airports that need to have their runways lengthened before they can
accept business aircraft.

AOPA President Phil Boyer reported on the industry’s efforts to attract
student pilots. He showed charts that depicted how activities in general
aviation correlate to the number of student starts. As the industry brings
more people into flying, it will provide personnel to fill airline and
military jobs, as well as other air work activities.

Aviation has a significant impact on the economic condition of the nation,
according to a study done for the FAA.

“Our economy would collapse if it were not for civil aviation,” said Robert
Zuelsdorf, president and CEO of Wilbur Smith Associates, which conducted the
study. Zuelsdorf reported that in 1998 civil airports accounted for $744
billion directly into the economy. This year, the figure should be $968
billion. Clearly, aviation has become a trillion-dollar business, he said.

Charles Huettner, senior policy adviser for aviation in President Clinton’s
office of science and technology policy, gave a brief glimpse into the
future. Imagine, he suggested, combining satellite navigation with
earth-mapping photos and linking that to equipment in the airplane.

Huettner showed a photo of Pasadena, California, taken during the most
recent photo-mapping mission of the Space Shuttle. Clearly visible were such
landmarks as the Rose Bowl and the Pasadena Airport. Buildings and terrain
were as visible as if flying over the area on a clear day.

By linking Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation to earth-mapping and
displaying it in the cockpit, flights in adverse weather could be conducted
much like VFR flights. The technology is available, but practical
applications are still years away, Huettner said.

This was the first time in more than a decade that the FAA has held its
forecast conference jointly for airlines and general aviation.

This 25th annual conference returned to its original concept of a single
all-encompassing meeting instead of segregating into separate sessions.

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