CAA: GA News, "A bright future depends on solving current problems"

["Stephen Irwin" <stepheni@cwnet.com>]

Friday, February 4, 2000

A bright future depends on solving current problems
GA News


WASHINGTON, DC — Every January the Transportation Research Board meets in
our nation’s capitol. This year the session focused on the new century,
predicting growth in air transportation but warning that expansion could be
curtailed by capacity and fees.

The TRB is a unit of the National Research Council. Several thousand
transportation leaders, university professors, think-tank experts and
product suppliers from around the world gathered to present papers and
discuss issues. Topics ranged from how long concrete should last to the
future of space travel.

Those looking at air transportation agreed on these points: Aviation is
going to change, and methods for increasing airspace and airport capacity —
or decreasing the demand for them — must be developed.

Though TRB members still seem to look at general aviation solely as business
flying, this year’s programs included more on GA than past meetings.

The Committee on Light Commercial and General Aviation sees a potentially
bright future for general aviation, but hedges its predictions on (1)
economic growth, (2) new technologies to increase utility and reduce costs,
(3) a different approach to aircraft production, and (4) development and
maintenance of an air traffic system that can accommodate growth in all
categories of air travel.

Gerald Bernstein of Stanford Transportation Group, and David Lawrence of
Aviation Market Research, prepared the committee’s paper. They see business
aviation growing as airline travel becomes more “mass transportation,” with
a deteriorating quality of service and a higher “misery index” for
passengers. They also see high fees — such as in Asia and Europe — and
airport congestion as major threats to general aviation’s growth.

Another paper presented by Roger Moog, Delaware Valley Regional Planning
Commission, focused on the problems of airports and expenditures. He pointed
out that as the price of doing business has increased, with general aviation
activity holding steady or declining in some areas, airports have succumbed
to pressure by developers. A common result is the migration of light planes
and business aircraft to congested hub airports. That in turn, Moog said,
reduces metropolitan reliever capacity and weakens the system’s ability to
mitigate noise and flight delays.

Capacity remains the biggest single issue. Dr. George Donohue, visiting
professor of air transportation and policy at George Mason University, and
Dr. Russell Shaver, chief policy analyst for the MITRE Corporation, predict
the delays that occur now during IFR conditions will be common and occur
even in VFR conditions over the next decade.

Underlying these predictions is a common thread: There is limited capacity
for GA. Donohue and Shaver, for instance, said airline scheduling must be
modified, including an “increase in the seat capacity.”

These experts appear to have an amazing grasp of the obvious. Looking into
the future, however, is not a perfect science. In 1901 Wilbur Wright
predicted “Man will not fly for 50 years.” Said former IBM Chairman Thomas
Watson in 1943: “I think there is a world market for about five computers.”

The public has a way of making predictions look foolish. Anyone care to
comment on who might have a say about these latest predictions on air
transportation?

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