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Thursday, June 26, 2008
On
one hand, we have the Business Travel Coalition warning that a lot of airports
face a loss of airline service because airlines are cutting back service as
they try to handle high jet fuel prices. The
BTC warned that about 100 regional airports could lose service, prompting a
spate of news stories in such cities as Corpus Christi; Evansville, Ind.; Waco;
Bakersville, Calif; Flint, Mich; and elsewhere. Said
the BTC in its report: Massive job losses,
supply chain disruption, declining business activity, shrinking tax revenues,
weakened American competitiveness, devastated communities, and reduced tourism
are just some of the predictable results from airline liquidations that could
happen as early as the second half of 2008 as a direct result of unsustainable
fuel prices. On
the other hand, we have aviation consultant Michael Boyd, who advises a lot of
airports on airline service, advising local communities and the news media not
to get all atwitter: In this current
airline planning environment, and in light of the capacity cut-backs already
announced, reporting to the world that some airports will lose at least some
service is about as intuitive as predicting snow to fall during a blizzard. But
telling the media in some communities that their airport is facing
near-catastrophe and the potential loss of all air service, based only on the
supposition that airlines could fail, and without hard analytical analysis of
specific service, revenues, yields, and hub-flows, cannot be regarded as hard
forecasting. It borders on Chicken Little. Below,
the complete Boyd email message: Airports Urged to Demand Specific Data Regarding BTC Predictions Colleagues: We are advising our airport clients to take care in interpreting
the broadcast press releases sent out today by the "Business Travel
Coalition," which predicts or implies loss of all service at many
airports. The clear intent of the effort is to get widespread support for
positive things like strengthening the dollar, increasing refining capacity
(which, by the way would take years, and might not affect jet fuel at all), and
to develop "environmentally responsible aviation fuels." Noble
objectives, perhaps. But trying to get support by broadcasting wild and subjective
intimations that can be misconstrued by the media as predicting your airport is
about to lose much or even all air service, is simply irresponsible. It sends a
wrong message to the media about your airport. In this current airline planning environment, and in light of the
capacity cut-backs already announced, reporting to the world that some airports
will lose at least some service is about as intuitive as predicting snow to
fall during a blizzard. But telling the media in some communities that their airport is
facing near-catastrophe and the potential loss of all air service, based only
on the supposition that airlines could fail, and without hard analytical
analysis of specific service, revenues, yields, and hub-flows, cannot be
regarded as hard forecasting. It borders on Chicken Little. We would suggest in response to media calls to point out that
while the airline industry is in the midst of constriction, that by no means
represents a situation that necessarily means a loss of all air service access.
You may want to mention if you have not seen, nor were supplied with, any
analytical data by this group that specifically addressed the air service
situation at your airport. It may be advisable, too, to call the "Business Travel
Coalition" and request a copy of the specific, in-depth analyses they
accomplished for your airport. Not the broad study they published last week,
but the direct and detailed analyses of your airport that led them to tell the
local media that your air service could be completely lost. Since they felt
free to tell your local media, it's only courtesy that they provide the data
specific to your airport that led them to suggest you may lose all service. Airlines and the air transportation system are facing significant
and severe challenges. But to address it, we do not need to resort to
panic-mongering and tossing fear-grenades at the local media. Reports like this
only confuse the issue, regardless of what might be noble intent. Michael J. Boyd |