"Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later"

Thursday, July 5, 2007

Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later 
By JEFF BAILEY and NATE SCHWEBER
The New York (NY) Times


As Northwest Airlines counts it, Janis Cavinder endured a two-hour delay
during a quick trip to London to celebrate the Fourth of July with a college
roommate. But by her count, it was a full-day ordeal that diverted her to
Newark and ended last night with a flight on another airline. 

Plan B for Getting to Your Destination (July 5, 2007) Ms. Cavinder, a
27-year-old Air Force captain who is headed to Afghanistan soon, missed a
connection after her first flight from San Diego to Detroit. That led to the
diversion to Newark and a six-hour layover. She made the best of it, quickly
visiting the Statue of Liberty and ground zero, but felt sorry for her
friend, a fellow Air Force officer, who was alone for the holiday in London.

"We were going to be the Americans in London celebrating the Fourth. Now
we're going to be celebrating the Fifth," said Ms. Cavinder, of Abilene,
Tex., who finally made a Continental Airlines flight.

As anyone who has flown recently can probably tell you, delays are getting
worse this year. The on-time performance of airlines has reached an all-time
low, but even the official numbers do not begin to capture the severity of
the problem. 

That is because these statistics track how late airplanes are, not how late
passengers are. The longest delays - those resulting from missed connections
and canceled flights - involve sitting around for hours or even days in
airports and hotels and do not officially get counted. Researchers and
consumer advocates have taken notice and urged more accurate reporting. 

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did a study several
years ago and found that when missed connections and flight cancellations
are factored in, the average wait was two-thirds longer than the official
statistic. They also determined that as planes become more crowded - and
jets have never been as jammed as they are today - the delays grow much
longer because it becomes harder to find a seat on a later flight.

That finding prompted the M.I.T. researchers to dust off their study, which
they are updating now. But with domestic flights running 85 to 90 percent
full, meaning that virtually all planes on desirable routes are full,
Cynthia Barnhart, an M.I.T. professor who studies transportation systems,
has a pretty good idea of what the new research will show when it is
completed this fall: "There will be severe increases in delays," she said. 

About 32 percent of domestic passengers connect from one flight to another
to reach their destination, according to Transportation Department data
analyzed by Back Aviation Solutions, a consulting firm.

Virginia Russell, a packaging designer who lives in Brooklyn, officially had
just a two-hour delay on her evening flight from Newark to Cleveland in
February. But after missing her connection to fly on to New Orleans, where
she had landed an invitation for the first time to attend the elaborate Zulu
Coronation as part of the Mardi Gras celebrations, her actual delay was
about 13 hours, Ms. Russell said.

Unable to put to use the Greek-goddess-style ball gown she had hand-sewn for
the occasion, Ms. Russell consoled herself with a pulled pork sandwich and a
piece of seven-layer chocolate cake from room service at a Holiday Inn near
the Cleveland Airport.

Over all, this could be a dreadful summer to fly. In the first five months
of 2007, more than a quarter of all flights within the United States arrived
at least 15 minutes late. And more of those flights were delayed for long
stretches, an average of 39 percent longer than a year earlier.

Moreover, in addition to crowded flights, the usual disruptive summer
thunderstorms and an overtaxed air traffic control system, travelers could
encounter some very grumpy airline employees; after taking big pay cuts and
watching airline executives reap some big bonuses, many workers are fed up.

Some other airline delay statistics, meanwhile, are getting a fresh look, as
well. After thousands of passengers were stranded for hours on tarmacs in
New York and Texas this past winter, consumer advocates began complaining
that Transportation Department data does not accurately track such
meltdowns. 

If a flight taxies out, sits for hours, and then taxies back in and is
canceled, the delay is not recorded. Likewise, flights diverted to cities
other than their destination are not figured into delay statistics. 

"The full picture is a lot worse" than the data compiled from airlines by
the government, said Paul Hudson, executive director of the Aviation
Consumer Action Project, founded by Ralph Nader.

The Transportation Department held a public meeting on some of the delay
statistics related to stranded flights last month and is now accepting
public comments on whether it should tighten airline reporting criteria.

Ms. Barnhart of M.I.T. said the earlier work, based on examining all the
passenger itineraries on Continental Airlines for August 2000, found that
the average delay for all flights reported to the Transportation Department
was 15.4 minutes. 

But including time lost to missed connections and canceled flights - those
unfortunate passengers averaged more than a five-hour delay - the overall
average delay was 25.6 minutes, or 66 percent higher.

Ms. Barnhart would like to see the Transportation Department and the
airlines perhaps focus on delays of 45 minutes or more, which cause missed
connections and other more severe inconveniences than the widely followed
15-minute cutoff for being classified as being on time. And she said actual
passenger delays - taking into account missed connections and canceled
flights - should be compiled to give travelers a clearer picture of what
happens.

About 30 percent to 35 percent of Continental's passengers make connections
between flights. A spokeswoman, Julie King, said the airline tries to
minimize both short delays and longer ones. She added that Continental's
only complaint about the Transportation Department statistics is that many
delays are caused by weather and thus do not reflect the airline's
performance.

Continental operates big hubs in Houston and Newark and one day last week,
1,658 passengers missed connections, which was 4.29 percent of those
connecting. That is a typical level of missed connections, but Continental's
flights that day were 89.6 percent full, so finding seats on later flights
for some passengers was difficult.

The airline alters its schedule when flights chronically lead to missed
connections. For instance, it recently extended by 10 minutes minimum
connection times in Houston for passengers traveling from Panama City,
Panama, because some were not clearing customs in time. 

Continental also has a new system that sends e-mail messages - and,
beginning next month, text messages to cellphones - informing connecting
passengers on late flights how they have been rebooked. 

It also is moving ticket kiosks inside the security area so passengers can
print new boarding passes without going out to the main ticketing area or
having to wait in line for a gate agent to help them.

The system, however, rebooks people on the next available flight with a
confirmed open seat and that is not always as soon as people might expect.
Some are told their new departure is in three days. 

"That causes them to go berserk," said David Grizzle, a senior vice
president at Continental. Often, on standby, people get out sooner, he said.

Last week, Fran Jolly, a customer service coordinator in Continental's
operations center in downtown Houston, was working to rebook about 50
passengers on a Hamburg, Germany, flight to Newark, delayed nine hours by a
broken window. Eight Denver-bound passengers would wait around for a 2:45
p.m. flight the next day - a 24-hour delay. Late, of course, is better than
not at all. So, with planes so full, Continental at times decides to hold
connecting flights for late-arriving passengers because no seats are
available on later flights. 

A Houston-to-Guayaquil, Ecuador, flight last week was held for
two-and-a-half hours so that 35 passengers on a delayed flight out of New
York could make the connection.

For those who can't get on a same-day flight, Continental arranges hotel
rooms - the airline pays for rooms for mechanical delays, the passenger for
weather delays. 

And about twice a month, said Rhonda Henrichsen, a Continental manager who
handles missed connections, there are not enough hotel rooms in the area.
The airline then drags out some of its 600 cots so passengers can bed down
in the terminal.

Her co-workers call it the "Hotel Rhonda."

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