"San Diego: A question of sufficient capacity"

Sunday, September 10, 2006

A question of sufficient capacity 
Need for moving Lindbergh debated
By Jeff Ristine
The San Diego (CA) Union Tribune


The search for a new San Diego airport was launched with a view to a
long-dreaded milestone at Lindbergh Field – the point where it can no longer
accommodate any increase in passengers or cargo. 

Advocates of a commercial airport at Miramar Marine Corps Air Station see a
pinch coming within the next 15 years. Steady growth at Lindbergh Field,
they argue, would end with intolerable delays in takeoffs and landings – a
maxed-out, stressed-out airport. 

Others see a smooth-running operation for decades to come, one that keeps up
with demand by pressuring airlines and passengers to adjust to Lindbergh's
constraints. In this outlook, some non-commercial traffic would be sent
elsewhere, and other flights might even depart from a new runway, built on
land north of the airport that is now used for the Marine Corps Recruit
Depot. 

Concern that the airport might someday reach capacity and cost the region
billions in lost economic development is the driving force behind a ballot
measure that was four years in the making. 

After screening 32 options, the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority
concluded that Miramar – despite opposition from the military – represented
the most suitable site for expansion. The voters will be asked to weigh in
on the issue Nov. 7. 

The San Diego County Taxpayers Association, like other opponents of
Proposition A, has questioned whether Lindbergh truly will run out of space
in the foreseeable future. Lani Lutar, president and CEO of the
organization, said the authority “did not give sufficient attention to some
alternatives that might have increased capacity” at Lindbergh. Critics say
the airport can forestall congestion by managing its single runway better. 

Those advocating a new airport, however, argue that the ideas to keep
Lindbergh operating past its 100th anniversary in 2028 are impractical or
ignore huge impediments. 

Consultants to the Airport Authority say demand will exceed capacity by
2022. The Federal Aviation Administration projects a crunch before 2020. 

A finite capacity

San Diego International Airport tallied a record 17.3 million commercial
passengers and 220,000 flights, including cargo, corporate jets and other
private planes, in 2005. It is on pace for an increase of about 1 percent in
2006. 

Airport officials peg Lindbergh's capacity as a single-runway airport at
about 24 million passengers and roughly 280,000 operations per year. 

Efforts to project demand typically take into account such variables as a
region's population, personal income, the state of the economy and ticket
prices. That exercise shows a steady, upward trend – with more and more
passengers and flights expected at Lindbergh. 

But Clifford Winston, a transportation economist for the Brookings
Institution, a Washington, D.C., research center, said looking solely at
rising numbers sidesteps the real reason runways are overcrowded. 

Winston, who is not taking sides in the San Diego airport campaign, said
“there's no question that we're way behind in runway capacity” across the
United States and that developing additional airport capacity would pay off.


Landing fees, currently based on weight and not on time of arrival, do
nothing to encourage airlines to widely vary landing times, he said. Most
airlines currently operate the most flights in the early morning and late
afternoon, when most passengers prefer to fly. 

Varying the fees by time of day, Winston said, would give airlines an
incentive to fly during less popular hours and make the use of runways more
efficient. 

Pricing also has been raised in the airport debate by University of
California San Diego economics department chairman Richard Carson. 

He suggests landing fees could be used to encourage a move to bigger
aircraft, which would decrease the number of flights. 

“If the average size plane is a Southwest (Airlines)-size plane, then you
don't have a problem,” Carson said. Southwest uses Boeing 737s, which seat
about 136 people. 

Airlines ought to be able to adjust to pressure from San Diego and other
cities for larger aircraft in the same way they made a gradual move to
quieter ones, Carson said. 

But authority officials say Carson is glossing over an unmistakable trend
toward smaller, more versatile regional jets used between San Diego and such
destinations as San Jose, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Salt Lake City and
Vancouver. 

“RJs,” as they are known in the industry, seat fewer than 100 passengers and
have been key in enabling airlines to lower their per-trip cost and still
offer multiple daily departures. At Lindbergh, about 20 percent of the
flights are on smaller planes – both turboprops and regional jets – with
fewer than 90 seats. 

“You cannot dictate to the airlines what size aircraft to bring in here,”
said Angela Shafer-Payne, vice president of strategic planning for the
Airport Authority. “Even if you could . . . change out all the turboprops,
change out all of the regional jets, the airlines couldn't make money doing
that.” 

Conflicting stats, views

The two sides in the airport debate interpret the trend in the number of
flight operations at Lindbergh differently – a point that could either
undercut or support the need for a new airport.
 
Using statistics from the FAA, Carson contends flights at Lindbergh Field
are down 9 percent since 1996 even though the passenger count is up 25
percent, suggesting no imminent congestion on the runway. 

But Ted Sexton, vice president of regulated and executive operations for the
Airport Authority, said those numbers paint a misleading picture. They
include all aircraft moving through Lindbergh airspace, he said, including
some arrivals at North Island Naval Air Station, propeller planes towing
advertising banners and other aircraft that neither land nor take off. 

By the authority's calculations, operations are down only 3 percent since a
1995 peak of nearly 227,000. And that drop, Sexton said, was in military and
general-aviation flights. 

He said commercial flights, the overwhelming majority of the airport's
business, have gone up 4.4 percent, supporting the notion of a steady
increase. 

Meanwhile, some wonder whether passenger traffic should even be driving the
debate over Lindbergh's future. 

Alan Gin, a University of San Diego economist, said a shrinking future for
cargo means less congestion at Lindbergh. 

Twelve years ago, Gin said, he thought a move to Miramar “was necessary to
keep the local economy going” and handle demand for air freight. 

But now, “manufacturing has become much more de-emphasized. The country as a
whole is shipping fewer things,” he said. 

A 2004 consultant's report for the Airport Authority, however, forecasts 3
percent to 4½ percent annual growth in cargo tonnage at Lindbergh through
2030. 

And while the Airport Authority's Shafer-Payne said San Diego cannot expect
to match the cargo-sorting facilities of Los Angeles or Ontario airports,
space constraints at Lindbergh limit cargo primarily to overnight delivery
operations such as FedEx, which has complained that its facilities are
inadequate. 

Those who want to keep an airport convenient to downtown San Diego say the
Airport Authority can improve the 672-acre facility so that it lasts
indefinitely. 

The authority studied and rejected a second, parallel runway in the densely
developed Midway District. 

But the idea of a second runway in a less intrusive V-shaped configuration
persists, although it would require land occupied by the Marine depot and be
limited to departures only. Airport officials say that idea would result in
only a 15 percent to 20 percent increase in capacity at Lindbergh. 

What's more, the authority would have to buy some adjacent property,
Shafer-Payne said, and the Midway District post office would be among the
businesses forced to relocate. 

Carson, the UCSD professor, said the authority also is ignoring another
potential relief valve – extending the runway at Carlsbad's
McClellan-Palomar Airport by 800 to 1,000 feet. 

The North County airport, which is under the jurisdiction of the county
supervisors, already has two airlines making short hops to Los Angeles and
Phoenix. Carson argues it would take little to convert Carlsbad into a
“supplemental” airport. 

Hampton Brown, manager of route service development for the Airport
Authority, said that American Eagle dropped its Carlsbad to LAX turboprop
flights in 1999. That doesn't bode well for the economics of a more
elaborate operation there, Brown said. 

Carlsbad Mayor Bud Lewis said that while there is little room for a physical
expansion of the airport, he would not want to see an increase in the area's
already heavy flow of vehicle traffic.

Proposition A

In an advisory measure, voters will signal whether they want government
officials to work with the military to obtain a portion of Miramar Marine
Corps Air Station for a future commercial airport.

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