"OIA's uncertain skies: In-state flights plunge as travelers alter plans"

Saturday, September 9, 2006

Airport: OIA's uncertain skies
In-state flights plunge as travelers alter plans
By Tim Barker and Beth Kassab
The Orlando (FL) Sentinel


There was a time when a quick flight from Orlando to Miami was just that.

You could rush to the airport, breeze through security and get to the gate
10 minutes before takeoff and find yourself in Miami an hour later.

But terrorism has changed all that. Since September 2001, airlines have
slashed their in-state flights by more than 40 percent, according to an
Orlando Sentinel analysis of data provided by OAG Worldwide, a company that
tracks flight schedules.

Orlando International Airport has been hit particularly hard, with nearly 20
percent of seats flying from Orlando to other Florida cities eliminated.
Overall service to the rest of the nation is about where it was in 2001.

But a comparison of flight schedules from September 2001 and 2006 shows that
service from OIA to five state airports -- including West Palm Beach, which
had 258 flights in September 2001 -- has been eliminated. Gone are more than
half of the daily flights to Miami, as well as 75 percent of all in-state
flights departing after 7 p.m.

Why? The security measures spurred by the terror attacks have created an
environment in which it is often easier to drive three hours than it is to
fly one hour. Driving now offers a distinct advantage: predictability.

Quite simply, people traveling shorter distances -- particularly business
travelers -- are hesitant to risk the delays that go hand-in-hand with
flying.

"They really don't want to waste time in security lines. And more
importantly, they don't always know how long those lines will be," said
Daniel Petree, dean of the school of business at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical
University in Daytona Beach.

Any such concerns were amplified with the latest round of terrorism-inspired
rules banning liquids and gels from airplanes. That's forcing more travelers
to consider checking bags -- something many business travelers are loath to
do.

"People who would normally carry on their bags now have to arrive earlier to
check them," said David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers
Association.

And with that, he said, comes just one more thing to worry about: "What if
my bag doesn't get there?"

Draw a circle

For Tom Wilkes, an attorney with GrayRobinson in Orlando, there is a simple
equation that determines whether he is going to fly or drive on one of the
10 or so business trips he makes each year.

Call it the four-hour rule. If he can drive to his destination in four hours
or less, he sees no reason to fly.

"You don't have to sit in those cramped seats or go through security lines,"
Wilkes said. "Plus you have your car there when you get there."

Wilkes' rule of thumb might be a bit conservative, but he is just the sort
of traveler airlines were responding to when they eliminated in-state
routes. Just look at what happened to the service between Orlando and Palm
Beach International Airport.

In September 2001, there was an average of eight flights a day from here to
there; now there are none, according to OAG Worldwide.

That's not surprising when you consider the 21/2-hour drive separating the
cities. There's little appeal to flying when locales are that close
together, said Stuart Klaskin, with KKC Aviation Consulting in Coral Gables.

"You can draw a circle around any city," Klaskin said. "I think three hours
is the magic number."

Dan Holsenbeck, lobbyist for the University of Central Florida, said he
averages at least one in-state business trip every other week, mostly to
Tallahassee. Flights to the state's capital from Orlando have decreased by
42 percent since 2001.

As a result, Holsenbeck said he opts to make the four-hour drive more than
he did before 9-11 but has made use of another option as well: private
charter flights.

Cost a 'wash'

Because he often has only a few days' notice or less for most trips, the
cost of a group charter compared with commercial flights is often a "wash,"
he said, when you consider the high price of last-minute commercial tickets.

And the elimination of the most convenient flights to Tallahassee in the
late evening and early morning also makes private charters more appealing,
he said.

"If it involves our board or the president's schedule, its almost become
essential that we charter because of the valuable use of their time,"
Holsenbeck said. "And that's directly related to the reduction in flights.
Whatever the cause, the reduction in flights has definitely had an impact."

Back in the black

In the wake of the 9-11 attacks, the airline industry was in tatters, with
many of the largest carriers -- including Delta Air Lines, once the dominant
carrier in Orlando -- forced into bankruptcy while coping with new security
concerns, rising fuel costs and the public's new fear of flying.

Flight schedules were trimmed and tens of thousands of airline workers lost
their jobs as the industry restructured, losing more than $40 billion in the
aftermath.

The massive retooling has seen carriers eliminate shorter flights and
replace smaller planes with larger ones. Take, for example, American
Airlines, which cut more than 55 percent of its intrastate flights out of
Orlando International after 9-11.

American Airlines actually has more room for passengers, having replaced its
46- and 64-seat planes with larger planes. Its smallest now is the 148-seat
Boeing 737.

Years of misery, however, may soon come to an end. Analysts say this may be
the year the industry returns to profitability.

Many of the larger carriers, including American, United and Continental,
have reported second-quarter profits. Only Delta and Northwest Airlines
remain in bankruptcy, with both reporting improving performances.

Still, a return to profitability is not likely to return Orlando's lost
statewide flights.

It's not as if the carriers are ignoring the needs of passengers. There may
be fewer options and fares may be higher, but anyone who wants to fly can do
so, said Terry Trippler, a Minneapolis-based airfare expert with
Myvacationpassport .com.

Supply and demand

Airlines tend to operate with a pretty simple supply-and-demand philosophy:
"When someone wants to go somewhere, there will be an airline there to take
them," Trippler said.

If demand returns, so will the service.

But the key to resurrecting that demand may rest with the Transportation
Security Administration, rather than airlines and passengers.

Initiatives such as the registered-traveler program being tested at Orlando
International, as well as new explosive-detection technologies, promise to
make flying safer and faster, said Larry Zmuda, a partner in the
homeland-security practice of Unisys Corp.

Only then will business travelers again see a reason to fly rather than
drive.

"They just want to get from point A to point B fast," Zmuda said. "They want
quick and predictable."

Attached Photo:

Airport security worker walks past a traveler at Orlando International
Airport.

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