"Which airline to fly during a snow storm"

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Which airline to fly during a snow storm 
By Scott McCartney 
The Wall Street Journal 


Neil Gallagher wanted to get home to New York from San Juan, but a potent
snowstorm was roaring up the East Coast on Saturday, Feb. 11. American
Airlines canceled his flight and gave him a blanket for bunking down in the
terminal. Then he noticed a JetBlue Airways flight leave for New York.

The next day, American again canceled flights, and JetBlue continued to fly.
Mr. Gallagher, an engineering professor at a Long Island college, bought a
$215 ticket and finally landed at Kennedy International Airport about 1 a.m.
on Monday, Feb. 13.

"It seemed to me that American and JetBlue had quite different philosophies
about how to handle it," Gallagher said. 

They do. When storms disrupt travel, some airlines are more aggressive than
others. Just as some travelers prefer to wait out storms in comfort and
certainty while others fight to get there as quickly as possible, airlines
make the same choices and fly different courses in storm situations. But
even when airlines continue to fly during bad weather, it doesn't mean
customers get to their destinations on time: flights can face long delays or
can end up rerouted to far-away airports.

An analysis of airline cancellations at East Coast airports during the
severe snow storm 10 days ago shows the airlines' differing attitudes in
action, and offers travelers a chance to make better decisions about which
airline they'd prefer when storms threaten travel.

AMR Corp.'s American and UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, for example, prefer to
batten down early to keep planes and crews out of the storm's path and
minimize both customer inconvenience and financial loss. "We would rather
cancel early rather than wait and have passengers trapped at the airport,"
said American spokesman John Hotard.

The risk: Losing or angering customers who could have made it home if storms
aren't as bad as predicted, or show up later than forecast.

JetBlue and Continental Airlines, in contrast, try to fly as much as they
safely can as long as they can, figuring that's best for customers and their
bottom line. But if they guess wrong about the weather, they risk having
planes divert to other airports and end up stuck for hours or even days.

On Saturday, Feb. 11, as the storm hit Washington and moved toward New York,
United canceled 39 percent of its scheduled flights into and out of the
three main New York airports (La Guardia, Kennedy and Newark, N.J.).
American canceled 28 percent of its New York schedule, according to flight
records compiled by FlightStats, the aviation data unit of Conducive
Technology Corp.

Continental, however, flew 90 percent of its schedule and JetBlue flew 97
percent of its New York flights, according to FlightStats data. "We believe
customers want to get where they're going even if it's very late, so we fly
as much as we can," said JetBlue spokesman Bryan Baldwin.

On Sunday, Feb. 12, American flew only 13 flights into or out of New York;
United just four, according to FlightStats. JetBlue had 60 arrivals and
departures; Continental 52. And on Monday, JetBlue and Continental both
operated more than 80 percent of their schedule - better than American and
United.

United says it found in years past it operated too many flights in winter
storm situations, and disruptions meant it took several days to recover back
to normal operations. The result of earlier cancellations in the latest
storm was "we got back to normal much more quickly," said Stephen Forte,
senior vice president of flight operations.

But Continental says forecasts overstate storms more often than understate,
and so it prefers to wait as long as possible before slashing schedules.

"Sometimes the easiest thing to do is cancel early, but that's not the best
thing for the customer," said Mark Moran, executive vice president for
operations at Continental.

On Sunday, not all the flights launched by JetBlue and Continental during
the storm made it as scheduled. Nine JetBlue flights diverted to airports
like Rochester, Syracuse and Buffalo in New York before making it to JFK
late Sunday. About 20 Continental flights inbound from Europe had to divert
to Montreal, Cleveland, Syracuse and Gander, Newfoundland.

Both airlines said they thought JFK would open to landings by noon Sunday,
so they launched some early morning flights headed to New York. But the snow
kept coming. One JetBlue flight from the Dominican Republic diverted to
Washington, where, while sitting on a taxiway awaiting takeoff clearance,
the airline delivered 30 pizzas to tired, hungry passengers.

Diversions are costly to airlines and inconvenient for customers. If crews
run out of allowable duty time - a pilot's work day is limited by federal
rules - then a plane, its passengers and crew may be stranded even if the
weather improves. An idle airplane means many other flights may have to be
canceled.

Problems sometimes compound. One Continental plane in Gander had a
mechanical problem with a door, and a replacement jet had to be flown in the
next day to get customers to Newark.

All airlines say they always operate within set safety parameters - if
conditions are too poor, they don't fly, or pilots divert to an airport with
better weather conditions. But the recent crash of a Southwest Airlines jet
in Chicago, running off a runway in a snow storm, show there can be perils
in being too aggressive at flying in bad weather. Icy runways, poor
visibility and unfavorable winds can leave little margin for mistakes or
malfunctions.

Beyond the vagaries of weather forecasting, many factors complicate how
airlines operate in storm situations. Holiday weekends can prompt airlines
to be more aggressive since there are few empty seats for passenger
rebooking. Running a hub in the path of a storm, as Continental and JetBlue
do in New York, doesn't allow as much latitude to pull back since planes and
customers are clustered at the hub.

And there's often a question of whether employees will make it to work -
both for the airline and for crucial airport functions like Transportation
Security Administration screening.

The airport itself influences what airlines can do. Newark and Kennedy
airports recovered more quickly on Monday than La Guardia, where space is
extremely tight, airline officials said. That gave Continental and JetBlue
an advantage over American, United and Delta, which fly more from La
Guardia. Plows at La Guardia, for example, pushed snow piles into five of
American's 11 gates, crimping flights on Monday. A spokeswoman for the Port
Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the New York City area
airports, said La Guardia typically has more cancellations and delays than
Kennedy and Newark.

But some of the differences come from divergent strategies. While some
airlines pulled planes out of New York on Saturday so they'd be available
for trips in other parts of the country all weekend, US Airways left planes
at La Guardia Airport.

Having a plane snowbound for 36 hours is expensive since it's not earning
money while grounded. But on Monday, US Airways caught up by operating 92
percent of its New York flights, higher than any other major airline. Others
had to wait for flights to arrive Monday morning before any departures could
go out; US Airways picked up passengers from competitors.

"We already had planes on the ground, which helped us get off to a good
start early Monday morning," said Philip Gee, a US Airways spokesman.


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