"No delay in Las Vegas airport's growth"

Thursday, October 20, 2005

No delay in airport's growth 
By Richard N. Velotta
The Las Vegas (NV) Sun


SAVANNAH, Ga. -- An independent aviation forecast says Las Vegas' McCarran
International Airport will be one of the fastest growing airports in the
country in the next six years.

The growth of the Las Vegas area coupled with planned fleet expansions by
low-cost air carriers serving the local market will result in double-digit
percentage growth over the next year and through 2011, according to an
airport forecast by the Boyd Group, an aviation consulting firm based in
Evergreen, Colo.

The forecast was made on the final day of the 10th annual Aviation Forecast
Conference in Savannah, Ga., this week.

Boyd Group President Mike Boyd said Las Vegas would be the third-fastest
growing hub airport in the country from 2004 to 2006 with 12.4 percent more
enplanements in that period. The airport could anticipate 24.9 percent
growth between 2004 and 2011, making it the fourth fastest-rowing airport in
the nation during that time.

At that pace, McCarran would see an additional 5 million passengers by 2011,
Boyd said.

Additional growth is being fueled by the continued success of Southwest
Airlines, which is expanding its fleet, and by US Airways, which uses
McCarran as one of its hubs.

In short-term growth, McCarran trails Philadelphia and Salt Lake City in the
forecast.

Philadelphia is benefiting from Southwest, which has focused on that city
for expansion as a strategic move when US Airways downsized operations
there, Boyd said.

Salt Lake City is expected to grow in the short term because Delta Air Lines
is de-emphasizing operations elsewhere and is expected to take advantage of
its strength in that market.

In the long term, Las Vegas is behind Philadelphia, Atlanta and Phoenix.

Phoenix should grow for the same reasons Las Vegas is growing, while Atlanta
is expected to benefit from the expected emergence of Delta from bankruptcy
protection and the expansion of discounter AirTran Airways, both of which
have major presences in Atlanta, Boyd said.

By total enplanements, Las Vegas trails Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and
Phoenix. Dallas should benefit from expected expansions by American
Airlines, which is expected to increase its international flying to help
maximizing profits.

The Boyd forecast comes as no surprise to McCarran officials, who have been
gearing up for growth even before 9/11 slowed the aviation industry down.

"We've been tracking at about 7 percent growth this year and have been
prepared with added capacity," said Rosemary Vassiliadis, deputy director of
the Clark County Aviation Department, which oversees McCarran operations.

Through August, McCarran has had 29.6 million passengers, a 6.7 percent
increase over record-breaking 2004. The airport is expected to easily
eclipse its record 41.4 million passenger count from last year.

Vassiliadis said McCarran carefully monitors resort expansions and has
developed a formula to determine how many passengers will use the airport.

"We've pretty much got it down that for every new room added, we'll get 160
passengers coming in and 160 going out (annually)," she said.

A new wing of gates opened earlier this year, and construction is to begin
next year on a fourth wing, which is expected to open in 2007.

Vassiliadis also said McCarran has been able to accommodate growth from its
two largest carriers by offering flexibility in terminal usage. The
airport's common-use technology enables, for example, Southwest to operate
flights from the B gates in addition to the C gates, where the airline
dominates the terminal.

Much of US Airways' growth has come from additional flights during the day,
and the airline has as much capacity as it needs in the A and B gates. US
Airways, formerly America West Airlines, is busiest after 8 p.m. and could
someday dispatch flights from the C gates late at night when Southwest's
schedule slows down.

McCarran officials figure that the airport, when built out, would have a
capacity of about 53 million people per year. As the airport gets closer to
that level, county officials expect to begin moving on developing a new
airport south of Las Vegas in the Ivanpah Valley, near Jean.

Boyd said growth forecasts for Las Vegas and Phoenix are based on the
assumption that both cities will find solutions to potential water-shortage
problems and continue to experience growth in their industries.

Brian Simpson, a Boyd Group analyst, said base demand depends on economic
and population growth and incorporates capacity and pricing components.

Las Vegas generally has received additional capacity from airlines and the
prevalence of low-cost carriers has kept ticket prices down.


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