"A billion air travelers in 2015: Will there be enough room for them all?"

Thursday, March 17, 2005

A billion air travelers in 2015: Will there be enough room for them all?
By LESLIE MILLER
The Associated Press


WASHINGTON -- More than 1 billion people a year will be boarding planes in
the United States within a decade, nearly double the number now using an
aviation system showing signs of being overburdened.

The Federal Aviation Administration, which released the forecast Thursday,
faces spending cuts for runways, air traffic control equipment and
buildings. But the agency's administrator, Marion Blakey, said she was
confident there would be enough money to accommodate the dramatic growth in
air traffic.

"We are redesigning airspace, deploying new software that will help increase
capacity, and putting new procedures in place," Blakey said. "We will be
ready."

Lawmakers and aviation advocates were not so sure.

Building is not keeping up with the increase in passengers, said David
Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association. "That just spells
congestion and delays for passengers."

Already, flights have been limited at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport
because too many planes were trying to take off and land, causing delays
throughout the country. The FAA negotiated an agreement with airlines to cut
37 daily flights and limit the number of domestic arrivals to 88 an hour
between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m.

Ruth Marlin, executive vice president of the air traffic controllers union,
said many passengers will do a lot of waiting in 2015 if things do not
change.

"The FAA is trying to do more and more with less and less and that is
putting an incredible strain on the system," she said.

Sen. Christopher Bond, chairman of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee
that oversees transportation spending, has expressed disappointment in the
Bush administration's budget proposal for 2006. It would cut money for
airport construction and runways by $500 million next year, to $3 billion.

"I am at a loss to understand why this program remains in the sights of the
budget gnomes," Bond, R-Mo., said at a hearing this week.

Sen. Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the subcommittee, pointed out the
administration has proposed $77 million in cuts for air traffic control
modernization, in addition to $400 million cut this year. In 2004, the FAA
was authorized to spend $2.9 billion.

"All indications are that air traffic will continue to grow," said Murray,
D-Wash. "Yet the Bush administration has decided that now is the time to
impose dramatic cuts in our investment at improving safety and expanding
capacity at our airports."

David Plavin, president of the Airports Council International-North America,
said the problem is not just the increase in passenger traffic, but that
planes are getting smaller. Small planes place just as much a burden on the
air traffic system as large planes.

"FAA is chronically underfunded," said Plavin, whose group represents
airports. "Some air traffic control towers are chronically understaffed."

But Blakey said the dollars for airport runways and buildings would still be
twice what it was in the late 1990s, when airports received about $1.5
billion. In September, she said, the FAA assessed airport authorities
capital needs and found they were 15 percent lower than the year before.

The FAA, which forecast a 45 percent passenger increase by 2015, also said:

   -Traditional big airlines such as United and American will grow at a
sluggish pace, with the number of passengers increasing by 2.8 percent
annually over the next 12 years.

   -Regional carriers, which fly planes with 70 or fewer seats, and
international travel will fuel the increase in commercial aviation.

   -The number of passengers on regional airlines will increase 15.4 percent
next year.

   -The number of passengers flying to and from the United States on
domestic airlines will increase an average of 5 percent annually over the
next 12 years.

On the Net:

Federal Aviation Administration: http://www.tsa.gov

Airports Council International-North America: http://www.aci-na.org

National Air Traffic Controllers Association: http://www.natca.org


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