"Turbulent times: U.S. Airways could jumble the mix at PTI"

Sunday, January 16, 2005

Turbulent times
U.S. Airways could jumble the mix at PTI 
By Nate DeGraff
The Greensboro (NC) News & Record


GREENSBORO - David Fields is a US Airways diehard.

He flies the airline on business. He flies it on pleasure trips. Last year,
he flew US Airways about 65 times.

So excuse Fields, the Greensboro district manager for the United States
Postal Service, if he's worried about the airline shutting down and leaving
Piedmont Triad International Airport. 

His first thoughts are for the company's local employees, but he also wants
to keep the short-hop convenience that US Airways offers up and down the
East Coast. 

"I don't want to see us lose US Air," he said.

Turbulent times at the bankrupt airline could jumble the airline mix at PTI,
where US Airways accounts for a third of daily departures. 

In the short term, the airport could lose direct flights to some cities.
Fares could rise, too.

But the situation isn't all bad. Other airlines would soon run more flights
out of PTI, and a low-cost carrier such as Jet Blue could eventually show up
and offer low fares.

"I think a year later, you're going to have most of that service restored,"
said Vaughn Cordle, an analyst with Airline Forecasts in Washington.

Long-struggling US Airways is in the midst of its second bankruptcy in two
years. The airline is trying to remake itself as a low-fare carrier through
massive cost-cutting, but high fuel costs, internal strife and low winter
demand has many experts doubting that US Airways can survive through the
spring.

Those struggles notwithstading, experts say PTI won't lose much service if
US Airways fails.

The airport has enough other airlines to pick up the routes, and fares
shouldn't go up too much as carriers fight for the 30,000 or so passengers
that US Airways totes from the airport each month.

"It's not like competition would be eliminated overnight," said Bill Oliver,
an aviation consultant with the Boyd Group in Evergreen, Colo.

US Airways now has 33 daily departures to seven cities from PTI, and it's
the only carrier with direct flights to Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore
and Reagan National Airport in Washington. 

If US Airways leaves, it's an open question as to whether other airlines
would pick up those nonstop routes.

Direct flights are a big deal for companies such as VF Corp., which uses US
Airways on about 2,000 trips in and out of PTI each year. Cindy Knoebel, a
spokeswoman for the Greensboro-based apparel giant, said the employees would
lose time connecting in other cities if US Airways wasn't around.

"We know that there are other options. We know that we could get our people
to where they needed to be," Knoebel said. "But there would be an added
level of inconvenience."

Almost sure to add flights at PTI is Delta, experts said. Similar to US
Airways, Delta already has direct flights to New York LaGuardia and Boston,
and the airline could add more.

"Greensboro is ... a traditional Delta-like market," said Stuart Klaskin, an
aviation consultant in Coral Gables, Fla. "It's in the South. It's close to
the Atlanta hub. It's reasonably close to the Cincinnati hub."

Also struggling is Independence Air, which offers 11 daily flights from PTI
to Washington Dulles, Orlando and Tampa. The company is trying to stave off
bankruptcy and recently said it would cut 150 of its 560 daily flights at
the end of this month, according to news reports. 

"Independence Air is in deep, deep trouble," Cordle said.

But Independence Air has forced other carriers to match its prices, experts
said. And though Delta has announced a massive restructuring to reduce
fares, 

Independence Air remains PTI's only bonafide budget carrier. AirTran
Airways, another low-fare airline, pulled out of PTI last summer.

"You can rest assured that if (Independence Air) goes away and another
(low-fare carrier) doesn't come in, the fares would jump tremendously," said
Nancy Dunn, CEO of Winston-Salem-based Aladdin Travel and Meeting Planners. 

Speaking of low-fare carriers, experts said PTI was a good fit for Jet Blue,
the budget airline based in New York. PTI has been courting the carrier, and
Jet Blue was said to be seriously interested in the airport. 

And PTI is expanding its north concourse, in part to attract new airlines.

"Jet Blue is the perfect guy to come in there," Cordle said. 

The carrier has ordered a host of 100-seat jets that would fit well in
smaller markets such as Greensboro, experts said. But don't expect Jet Blue
here for at least another 18 months, said Michael Boyd of the Boyd Group. 

Experts were less enthusiastic about the possibility of Southwest coming to
PTI. The giant low-fare carrier is setting up shop in bigger markets,
including Philadelphia last year and Pittsburgh later this year. 

Now that the airline has grown so fast, it might not be as interested in
Greensboro as it might have been several years ago, experts said. For now,
PTI travelers still have US Airways. And even if the carrier goes away, PTI
is in better shape than smaller airports where US Airways is dominant.

"The airport's done a very good job of spreading out its air service among
other carriers," Boyd said.

Filling the void

If US Airways goes out of business, industry analysts see these airlines
possibly taking up the slack:

Delta: Similar to US Airways, Delta already has direct flights to New York
LaGuardia and Boston, and the airline could add more. The Greensboro
location is close to the Atlanta and Cincinnati hubs.

Jet Blue: PTI has been courting the budget airline based in New York. The
carrier has ordered a host of 100-seat jets that would fit well with smaller
markets such as Greensboro. And PTI has expanded its north concourse, in
part to attract new airlines.


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