"Opinion: San Diego airport plan built on guesses"

Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Opinion
Airport plan built on guesses
By EDWARD BENDER
The San Diego (CA) North County Times 


It's projected that Lindbergh Field will exceed runway capacity by 2012 and
that a new airport will not be available for at least 10 years. So we face a
crisis. Or do we? The 2012 projection is based on "business as usual," but
business as usual is unlikely for a variety of reasons.

A major reason is oil production. Most oil geologists agree that, barring
major new discoveries, annual production is at or near its peak and will
probably be declining by 2012. The requisite discoveries are only likely to
be found under polar ice that will still be around in 2012 even with global
warming. Consequently prospecting and production in the Arctic would be
quite expensive. Coupled with stability or decline in production will be a
major increase in demand as other countries, notably China, industrialize.
The inevitable result will be to drive up the cost of oil significantly. 

Another reason is U.S. debt, which is more than $20,000 per person and will
increase in the near term. Inflation is traditionally the way debt is dealt
with, so we can expect to see the dollar continue to decline against the
euro and yen.
 
Other reasons include the accuracy of population projections, especially the
higher income populations, the possibility of long-term negative reaction to
flying because of airport security, and the possibility of base closings due
to a pendulum swing against a large military after Iraq. Since these are
more speculative, I'll ignore them.

What are the likely results? While some industries can cut back on oil usage
and more fuel-efficient cars will be available, it is hard to see how
airlines can become more fuel-efficient except by ensuring that flights are
completely full. In addition they will undoubtedly raise prices and may cut
back on frequent-flier miles and usage. Coupled with the decline of the
dollar, this will reduce tourist travel. Higher prices and improved
telecommunications will probably reduce business travel. Of course both
effects will be offset by a population increase in San Diego, but probably
not to the extent predicted. It is possible that domestic tourism may
increase in San Diego, but more of these tourists may select alternative
means of transportation.

While the devaluation of the dollar will make the United States more
attractive to foreign tourists, that will be offset by increased travel
costs (and, possibly, airport security). While foreign tourism may increase
in Hawaii and the East Coast, it could actually decline in San Diego.

Since the expense of airline travel can be expected to increase beyond 2012,
we may well see a time when runway usage is less than it is at the present
time and San Diego has a large, underused airport that is less conveniently
located than Lindbergh Field. We might even close the new airport to
passenger travel and return to Lindbergh!

Carlsbad resident Ed Bender has been on the UC San Diego faculty since 1974.
His textbooks include one on the use of mathematics to model real-world
situations.


 Do you have an opinion about this story?
Share it with other readers in our CAA Discussion Forums

http://www.californiaaviation.org/dcfp/dcboard.php


*****************************************