"Anger as UK airport growth predictions prove wrong"

Monday, August 9, 2004

Anger as airport growth predictions prove wrong
United Kingdom - The Birmingham Post & Mail


Birmingham International Airport has admitted figures predicting the
economic benefits to the West Midlands of growth at the airport have
proved dramatically wrong.

Campaigners against BIA expansion last night claimed the 'rash'
forecasts meant the region should take the airport's forthcoming case
for a second runway - due in 2005 - with a 'large pinch of salt'.

BIA said considerable changes in the aviation industry were responsible
for the wayward predictions, which were part of the evidence considered
by Solihull Council's planning committee when it granted permission for
passenger growth in 1996.

The airport produced a tenyear master plan in 1995, announcing the
runway would be lengthened by 500 metres and a predicted 10.5 million
passengers per year would be using the airport by 2005.

This, BIA claimed, would see an 80 per cent increase in jobs over the
decade from 1994 at both the airport and in related local industries and
a 120 per cent growth in wealth generated for the West Midlands economy.
However, according to the BIA website, the current economic impact of
the airport - which remains on course to meet the 10.5 million
passengers figure despite the runway extension still being on hold - is
substantially less.

It shows there are now about 1,000 fewer jobs than 1994 and there has
been only a 20 per cent increase in the airport's contribution to the
region's coffers over the decade.

Chris Crean, from West Midlands Friends of the Earth which opposes the
second runway, said: 'The pain for local residents affected by airport
expansion is always tempered by how many jobs are going to be created by
the massive growth in noise and pollution.

'However this does not appear to be the case. BIA is growing according
to plan with respect to passengers but not jobs.

'When they make their rash job predictions they should be taken with a
large pinch of salt. This ten-year milestone has allowed us all to see
the predictions from BIA for what they are.

'The Department for Transport should regard these significant shortfalls
very seriously indeed.

'We would like to see year-on-year evaluation of the projections from
the airport in terms of its job creation potential and value to the
regional economy.'

He added: 'We clearly cannot believe the crystal balls of the operators
of BIA.

'When they put their master plan up for consultation in 2005 we will
expect rigour from the region and the local planning authority in how
BIA spin out their projections of job creation and value to the regional
economy.'

An airport spokeswoman said: 'Forecasts included in the airport's
ten-year master plan, which was published in 1995, took into account the
industry trends and patterns at that time.

'Since then, the aviation industry has changed considerably with, for
example, the introduction of low fares airlines and internet bookings.

'We are currently compiling a draft master plan which will include
research into the current and long-term economic andemployment benefits
that BIA brings to the region. This draft document is due to be released
for consultation in mid-2005.' She added: 'All industries evolve and
aviation is no exception. We use the best figures available at the time,
as does the Government.

'Predictions can never be 100 per cent accurate as circumstances like
the Iraq war, Sars and 9/11 can and do make an impact on the industry.

'None of this detracts from the fact that aviation creates wealth across
several sectors as well as many quality and long term jobs.'

Transport economist Dr Pat Hanlon, from the University of Birmingham,
said the airport did play a vital role in the West Midlands economy but
said using ten-year predictions could be misleading.

'I would concede that such economic predictions are a notoriously
difficult area to measure and it is valid to say thatit is not advisable
to emphasise them when talking about the impact of airport growth.

'However, in 1995 the original estimates may have been wide of the mark
but it was right to assume that there would be a fillip to the economy
from BIA expansion. There is a very real effect on a region by an
expanding airport and areas that do not have airport growth tend to do
quite poorly,' he added.


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