"Analyst says '04 recovery by airlines is less likely"

Saturday, March 20, 2004

Analyst says '04 recovery by airlines is less likely 
BLOOMBERG NEWS


Prospects for a recovery this year among U.S. airlines are eroding, an
influential analyst said yesterday.

AMR Corp., whose American Airlines unit is the largest U.S. carrier, and
other unprofitable airlines will have wider losses than forecast at the
start of the year because of higher fuel costs and more price
competition, said UBS analyst Sam Buttrick. Money-making airlines such
as Southwest, the biggest discounter, and JetBlue Airways Corp. will
earn less than forecast.

Buttrick widened his 2004 loss estimate for U.S. airlines to $2.3
billion from $500 million. Institutional Investor ranked Buttrick the
top airline analyst last year in its All-America Research Team.

"Hopes for a meaningful U.S. airline financial recovery in 2004 are
fading fast," Buttrick said.

He cut his full-year estimates for all nine U.S. airlines he covers,
including Continental Airlines Inc., Newark Liberty International
Airport's largest carrier.

The price of jet fuel, which is the industry's second- biggest expense,
fell 1 cent to 99 cents per gallon in New York Harbor yesterday but has
risen 7 percent this year.


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