"Minneapolis airport approves estimates for '07"

Tuesday, August 19, 2003

Airport approves estimates for '07
By Dan Wascoe Jr.
The Minneapolis (MN) Star Tribune


Airport officials moved a step closer to the next phase of their
noise-insulation program Monday by approving predictions of airport activity
between now and 2007.

More predictions lie ahead, followed by the drawing of noise maps that will
influence how many houses near Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
receive noise insulation in years to come.

By approving forecasts of airline passengers, air cargo, general aviation
(small planes), the changing mix of airline fleets and their passenger
loads, the Metropolitan Airports Commission rejected arguments by some
anti-noise activists that the estimates are too low.

James Spensley, president of the South Metro Airport Action Council,
challenged the use of industry and government figures that do not account
for conditions unique to Minnesota's largest airport. He said that
forecasted numbers should be higher because more passengers could be drawn
to the newly expanded airport and because of its role as a dominant regional
hub for Northwest Airlines.

He also said that if the commission attracts more airline competition -- the
agency's professed goal -- such flights would attract more passengers and
generate more noise.

And he said the commission's previous forecasts fell short of actual airport
activity and the jet noise that it generated for nearby residents.

Pat Kennon, a consultant for Virginia-based HNTB, acknowledged that to stay
on schedule his predictions were based on "off-the-shelf forecasts" instead
of on customized data for the Twin Cities.

He said his recommended prediction, chosen from three such forecasts, was
chosen partly because it seemed closer to recent trends. He said that added
airline competition is speculative and that it likely would account for only
two or three flights a day -- "nothing that's liable to seriously change the
overall numbers."

The forecasts do include projected use of a fourth runway that is under
construction.

The commission approved these forecasts: 

   . Passengers will increase an average of 3.6 percent a year, to a total
of 37.8 million in 2007.

   . Average aircraft size would increase from 125 seats to 128 by 2007 for
major airlines and from 38 to 43 seats for regional airlines.

   . The proportion of filled seats on departing flights will rise from 66.9
to 68.4 percent per plane.

   . Air cargo tonnage would rise about 3.6 percent per year.

   . Takeoffs and landings by general aviation would grow about 2.5 percent
per year.

Airport officials have said that previous forecasts were higher than actual
activity because air travel and airport activity boomed in the 1990s. But
the 2001 terrorist attacks, an economic downturn and the recent impact of
severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have depressed airline activity.

The next step will be for consultants and commission staff to develop
estimates of total takeoffs and landings, the numbers of particular types of
planes and the proportion of night flights. Other factors will include the
projected use of each runway. The commission is expected to act on those
estimates this fall, after which new noise maps will be drawn.

The future of the noise insulation program also could be affected by
Northwest Airlines' recent lobbying effort to forbid using federal airport
grants to expand the program beyond current noise thresholds. Northwest,
despite a lease commitment to spend $70 million on future noise insulation,
says that economic conditions have changed and that airport funds should be
spent on security and other pressing projects.

On the ground 

In other business, the commission allowed airport cabdrivers to use their
vehicles up to seven years instead of the current six -- at least until 2005
-- and to allow cabbies to pay their annual $2,500 fee in two installments.

But the commission put off new airport parking rates until October. It still
plans to introduce a system next month that allows customers to swipe a
credit card through an electronic reader when they enter and leave the
airport, saving time and allowing the commission to reduce the number of
parking-ramp cashiers.


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