"Paris Air Show Highlights The Sorry State of Aviation"

Wednesday, June 18, 2003

Paris Air Show Highlights The Sorry State of Aviation
By SCOTT MCCARTNEY 
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Le BOURGET, France -- The Paris Air Show is supposed to be a showcase for
the wonders of aviation. This year's year show, however, started with a
funeral.

On Saturday, a sleek, sexy, wondrous Air France Concorde flew to Le Bourget,
the site north of Paris of the biennial trade show and the airport where
Charles Lindbergh landed 76 years ago. The plane, registered as F-BTSD, was
the youngest Concorde in Air France's fleet, having been delivered in 1980.
It holds records for the fastest round-the-world commercial flights, both
eastbound and westbound, and flew a total of 5,137 flights. On Saturday, it
flew its last. F-BTSD, known as "Sierra Delta," was turned over to the
museum at Le Bourget.

"Many of us have tears in our eyes as we see the symbol of aviation
technology retired to a museum," an air show announcer proclaimed to the
crowd.

Concorde, which will end commercial service with a British Airways New
York-to-London trip in October, was an elegant and ambitious step in the
long, steady history of rapid aviation-technology advances. After all, this
year marks the 100th anniversary of man's first flight, illuminating how far
aviation has come in a short time.
  
At crucial steps in airline development, new airplanes changed the world of
travel. The jet age dawned with the Boeing 707 making coast-to-coast flying
practical. The Boeing 747 jumbo jet made it possible for the masses to
travel across oceans. The European-built Concorde shrank those oceans. New
planes created new business, generated new excitement about air travel, and
created new opportunity for airlines.

But technological advances in aviation are stalled, and that's painfully
obvious at this year's Paris Air Show. Sure, you can gawk at great new
pinpoint-accurate missiles and ever larger, more powerful unmanned military
vehicles. There are impressive new business jets and loads of small regional
jets -- and lots of activity in those markets. But for full-size commercial
airlines, there's nothing. Relatively little new investment; no bold new
ideas.

Boeing brought a stretched version of its 777 widebody, called the
777-300ER. Airbus brought a stretched version of its similarly sized A340
widebody, called the A340-600. Making the fuselage longer by adding a
section of tube is about as advanced as things get right now.
 
Both companies have new versions of old ideas under development. Airbus is
making a steroid-enhanced 747 called the A380, a double-deck flying budget
hotel capable of carrying more than 550 people. Airbus calls the A380
"today's most exciting new aircraft." But it's hard to get excited about
standing in a departure lounge with 550 other souls, or racing 549 others to
Customs.

Boeing, which last year scrapped the one exciting idea it had -- a faster
airplane called the Sonic Cruiser -- now is focused on launching an updated,
more efficient version of its 767 line. Boeing executives had hailed the
Sonic Cruiser as an airplane that would change the way the world flies. But
after Sept. 11, 2001, airlines had no interest in that expensive
proposition. So Boeing shifted to making its standard plane more efficient.
This week, Boeing dubbed the 767-replacement plane, which is little more
than a paper concept at the moment, the "Dreamliner."

Even if it is built, such is not the stuff of aviation dreams. Dreamliner's
main pitch is that it will cost airlines 15% less to fly. That's certainly
important, and if history is any guide, it will lead to even lower fares.
Airbus and Boeing have done a lot to make it cheaper to fly people, and the
savings have fallen straight to passengers. Undoubtedly, the A380, if it
finds more than limited use by a handful of airlines, will lead to lower
fares. But those are incremental steps, not revolutionary advancements.

It's hard to blame the aircraft manufacturers for not trying harder to push
the envelope. After all, airlines aren't buying airplanes these days. The
only reliable customers are the fast-growing low-cost airlines that want
small planes, mostly the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320. What's more,
air-transport technology looks fairly mature. Most of the advancement of the
last 20 years or more has come mostly in making more-powerful engines, and
incrementally better wing design.

The last great technological advancement -- supersonic Concorde -- was a
commercial failure. Concorde never made much money for British Air and Air
France because it was a fuel hog and expensive to maintain. Only 20 were
built. And governments aren't funding commercial-aviation development as
they once did. European governments paid to develop Concorde. Now, European
governments helping with A380 development expect to be paid back. The U.S.
government funds research on space ships and flying weapons, but not
commercial transport.

When airlines emerge from the deep recession they will need to replace
planes in their fleets. But it will be a long time coming. Hossein
Amir-Aslani, J.P. Morgan's chief investment banker covering airlines and
aerospace, says that of 2,000 aircraft currently grounded around the world,
600 to 700 will come back into service. That's the equivalent of one to
one-and-a-half years of combined production for Airbus and Boeing, he
estimates, and that means it will probably be 2005 or so before airlines
start placing large aircraft orders.

Of course, bold new ideas developed now wouldn't actually start flying
passengers until the end of this decade, and airline finances and passenger
demands could both be stronger. Even though there appears to be little
incentive for manufacturers to take added risk by trying to develop
something that might not sell now, now is exactly the time they should be
doing it.

Since they aren't, we're stuck with the bus. Air travel has matured into a
mass-transportation business. There's no new excitement, no romance. There
are no new sleek birds that are so special you just have to go fly, or so
innovative that they change the way we live.

It would be nice if the industry would dream a little bigger.


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