"Airlines and travelers struggle as nation faces war"

Sunday, March 16, 2003

Airlines and travelers struggle as nation faces war
By Carol Pucci
The Seattle (WA) Times


Whether you decide to cancel a trip or stick to your travel plans, you'll be
affected in coming weeks by new airline policies, reduced flight schedules
and changes in airport security as the travel industry copes with the impact
of war preparations.

"It's the uncertainty that's killing us," said Cathy Keefe, spokeswoman for
the Travel Industry Association of America, which represents hotels and
airlines and other travel businesses. "People are waiting until the last
minute (to make plans) even more so than ever."

Airlines responded last week by making it easier to change flights and
postpone trips without paying the usual penalty fees. Policies can be
expected to be revised further as events unfold, and each airline has come
up with slightly different rules.

"Right after 9/11, we had the fear factor. Then we had the hassle factor.
Then we had the economic factor," said Terry Trippler of Cheapseats.com, an
online travel-booking site. "Right now, it's the 'what if' factor. Airlines
are seeing this in their advance bookings, and they're trying to handle the
situation."

Led by US Airways, most major carriers announced plans to allow those with
nonrefundable tickets to change their plans in the event of war with Iraq or
whenever the Department of Homeland Security raises the national alert level
to "Code Red." Some airlines extended the policy to any tickets purchased
this month, regardless of whether there's a war.

If you've got a ticket you'd like to change, the best advice is to call your
airline or travel agent for the latest information. Airlines said they would
update rule changes on their Web sites.

The Air Transport Association predicts that U.S. airline industry losses
would grow by $4 billion if the U.S. goes to war, and a prolonged conflict
would likely produce some casualties among major carriers.

Demand for air travel is already at its lowest level in decades, with the 10
major U.S. airlines reporting declines in February traffic, in part because
of war-deterred bookings.

US Airways and United Airlines are operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy
protection, and it seemed last week that American Airlines could be the
next.

Schedule changes

Travelers should be prepared for disruption as airlines scramble to adjust
routes and schedules, depending on how much passenger traffic drops in the
coming weeks. Routes most affected will be those to Middle Eastern, North
African and some European destinations.

When it comes to domestic flights, airlines aren't likely to drop cities,
but may reduce flights. This means that you might find yourself rebooked on
a flight with connections even though you originally booked a non-stop
flight.

Don't expect much advance notice.

"American's contingency plans for a war do include a reduction in our flight
schedule, but it's still too early to say how much would be required," said
American Airlines spokesman Todd Burke.

Trippler advised double-checking with the airlines to make absolutely sure
they have your phone number and can get hold of you.

Heightened security

Airport security is expected to remain tight, and travelers should be
prepared for extra scrutiny.

John Thorn, a transportation analyst for iJet Travel Intelligence, a travel
risk management firm whose services are used mainly by business travelers,
says an array of security measures put into place after Sept. 11 could be
reinstated.

These might include banning personal vehicles from inside airport terminal
areas, random vehicle searches and elimination of curbside baggage checks.

"I think everyone's going to get scrutinized more intensely," he predicted.

The federal Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has already
consolidated all passenger screening at the security checkpoints at
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. Passengers are now required to have
boarding passes before they enter the gate areas.

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport spokesman Bob Parker won't say now what
new security measures might go into effect if there's a war, but he doubts
travelers will be told to arrive more than two hours early for their
flights.

Short-term upheaval

While war with Iraq is expected to have a devastating effect on the
estimated $460 billion global tourism industry, tourism officials in the
U.S. and in other countries are hopeful the impact will ease in time.

"I think there will be upheaval, but it will be very short-lived. If 24, 48,
72 hours pass, and there hasn't been major terrorist activity, things could
rebound faster than we might expect," Trippler said.

During the 1991 Gulf War, tourism growth slowed to 1.2 percent, but in the
following year it posted a jump of 8.3 percent.

"After 9/11, the majority of people simply postponed their trip or rebooked
for a later date," said Keefe, the Travel Industry Association spokeswoman.

In the meantime, tourism-dependent destinations including Florida, Nevada,
New York and Hawaii are considering new advertising campaigns to keep
visitors coming.

A good sign is that travelers are still booking trips for May and June, said
Gail Norris of Premier Travel & Cruise in Springfield, Ore.

For people such as Jerry and Patty Gropp of Mercer Island, travel will be a
welcome break from the barrage of news about the war. They are planning a
trip to Belgium and Italy in mid-April.

"We're going ahead," Jerry Gropp said last week. "We went to Japan after
Sept. 11, and it was a great relief to get away from the hysteria here."

 Do you have an opinion about this story?
Share it with other readers in our CAA Discussion Forums

http://www.californiaaviation.org/dc/dcboard.php

*****************************************