"To sustain UK's insatiable demand for air travel more runways will have to be built"

Friday, November 1, 2002

Analysis
To sustain our insatiable demand for air travel more runways will have
to be built
United Kingdom - The Guardian


Up and down the country, communities are compiling vast dossiers of
excuses. Everybody has a reason why their area is entirely unsuitable as
a site for new airports, extra runways or larger terminals. 

At Stansted, the Essex-bred chef Jamie Oliver is mobilising troops to
march against plans for up to three extra runways. In north Kent, the
RSPB has leapt to the defence of wader birds, barn owls and lapwings
which live around Cliffe - the possible site of a new airport. 

On the outskirts of Heathrow, local MP John McDonnell is championing an
11th-century church and 14th-century tithe barn in Harmondsworth, both
of which will be bulldozed if the airport expands. In Warwickshire,
villagers near Draycote Water have discovered thousands of nesting
gulls, which could fly into the engines of aircraft if a new airport is
built outside Rugby. 

Transport secretary Alistair Darling kicked off the frenzy of
anti-aviation campaigning in July when he published a consultation on
air transport. He predicted that by 2030, demand for air travel will
triple to 500m passenger journeys per year if nothing is done to
constrain it. 

That figure was snapped up by airlines, which point out that without an
unprecedented programme of runway building, Britain's airports will soon
be unable to cope. If we want to support the right to fly, they argue,
then we need to lay down far more concrete. 

So is Mr Darling's forecast realistic? It is the mid-point in a range
published by the Department of Transport that reckons "unconstrained"
demand by 2030 will be between 400m and 600m journeys. This rests on a
conservative assumption of a 4% rise in travel per year. The recent
success of budget airlines has spurred growth to between 6% and 8%. 

Despite scepticism from national flag-carriers, low-cost airlines are
here to stay. For all their cheap fares, easyJet and Ryanair are making
hefty profits. Low-cost carriers are just beginning to spread their
wings: bmibaby began flying from Cardiff this week, and Buzz announced
plans for a Bournemouth base. 

The British have a healthy appetite for foreign travel. As people grow
wealthy, they want holidays abroad - according to the Association of
British Travel Agents, the number of holidays sold rose from 49m in 1998
to 54m in 1999 and 56m in 2000. 

But critics say that the aviation industry is effectively subsidised by
the government. Airlines pay no tax on their fuel and, up to now, have
contributed little to clearing up their polluting emissions. The green
lobby has urged ministers to constrain growth in air travel by forcing
airlines to pay for their environmental damage. 

The government intends to make airlines pay for carbon dioxide emissions
- which it reckons will push up fares by 10% over 30 years, leading to a
10% reduction in travel. AirportWatch, a body opposing new runways, says
carriers ought to go much further by compensating for all their
pollution, including aircraft noise and toxic nitrogen oxides, which
would push up the average price of a London-to-Glasgow return by pounds
24. 

AirportWatch also points out that, in total, Britain's airports have an
existing capacity to handle 412 mil lion passengers - not far short of
the government's forecast for 2030. But full use would mean
minute-by-minute international departures from airports such as Bristol,
Newquay and Stornaway - hardly a realistic or convenient scenario.
Ultimately, even AirportWatch admits that new runways may be needed. It
suggests a sustained five-year period of constraining demand, then a
fresh look at more modest proposals for expansion. 

Airlines warn that they cannot wait that long. According to the British
Air Transport Association (Bata), Heathrow is the busiest dual-runway
airport in the world, with a take-off and a landing every 90 seconds.
Gatwick is the world's busiest single-runway airport, with 45 plane
movements every hour. Planning permission for Heathrow's terminal five
took 12 years, with construction only just underway. 

Of the 500 million possible air passengers in 2030, Mr Darling reckons
300 million will be in the south-east of England. But the only major
airports with spare capacity are Stansted and Luton. Big carriers such
as BA are reluctant to use these, arguing that they can compete
internationally only by offering a single major "hub", at which
transatlantic passengers can transfer to short-haul flights. Taking a
bus from Heathrow to Luton is not a realistic option for the jet-lagged
American businessman. 

Britain punches above its weight in aviation - our flying industry ranks
third in the world, behind the US and Japan. According to Oxford
Economic Forecasting, aviation employs 180,000 people and supports
another 320,000 jobs indirectly. Bata says the industry contributes
pounds 10.2bn to the national econ omy, although critics point out that
this is just 1% of our gross domestic product. 

The government's consultation lasts until the end of this month. Then it
will be decision time. If we want our aviation industry to continue to
be a leader, the country will need more runways. Otherwise Amsterdam,
Paris and Frankfurt, all of which have gone ahead with airport
expansion, will replace London as Europe's top airline hubs. 

But the cost in pollution and damage to local communities will be
significant. Opponents point out that this is a densely populated
island, and therefore any extra concrete is bound to infuriate somebody.
Britain needs to decide whether it is worth all the pain to support an
insatiable national hunger for ever cheaper flights.


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