[Archive Home][Date Prev][Date Next][Index]
Airport News, "Panel Explores Scenarios for Southern California Airport Use"
Monday, September 20, 1999
Panel Explores Scenarios for Airport Use
Aviation: A study projects 2020 regional distribution of travelers in
various situations, with and without El Toro.
By JEAN O. PASCO, Times Staff Writer
The Los Angeles Times
The number of passengers using Southern California airports is expected
to double by 2020, but if more airports aren't expanded or built, how will
the estimated 158 million airport customers that year be served?
The question is at the heart of a pending study by the Southern
California Assn. of Governments, and the agency's answers could prove a
potent weapon for those who oppose the massive Los Angeles International
Airport expansion and construction of a new airport at the former Marine
Corps air base at El Toro.
Foes of bigger airports hope the SCAG study will show that other
airports can assume much of the projected demand in 21 years.
"Rather than having a forecast debate, we should be looking at how we
move these passengers and take full advantage of the [other] airports we
have today," said Lake Forest Councilman Richard T. Dixon, an opponent of
both an El Toro airport and LAX expansion.
But Los Alamitos Councilman Ronald Bates, who supports both projects,
said new airport usage numbers being analyzed by SCAG may provide even more
argument for the necessity of the projects.
"I think we'll find that the economic impact on the region [without El
Toro and LAX expansion] would be less than desirable," Bates said.
Dixon and Bates both are members of SCAG, the agency that controls
federal and state funding for regional transportation projects. Its
forecasts typically become the backbone for plans made by city and county
governments.
The agency, governed by 75 elected officials from Southern California
cities and counties, will release an update on its airport projections when
its aviation task force meets Thursday in Los Angeles. The task force will
recommend whether the new information should be adopted as part of the
regional transportation plan.
SCAG's current projection of passenger demand is based on more than a
dozen factors, including variables such as air fares, frequency of flights
and travel time to the airport.
The brunt of the future load would be borne by LAX, the planned El Toro
airfield and Ontario International Airport. SCAG predicts 22 million
passengers would be using El Toro in 2020--triple the load of John Wayne
Airport. LAX would grow from about 60 million passengers a year today to 94
million, and Ontario would serve 16 million.
That's assuming, of course, that Southern California's 12 airports will
be expanded and El Toro will be built to accommodate the expected 158
million passengers then.
SCAG hasn't worried before whether facilities would be built to handle
all of its transportation predictions. But now, with communities opposed to
bigger airports, the agency is acknowledging that airports might not grow
with demand.
That means, Dixon said, that future demand must be "based in reality
and not some wish list."
SCAG has developed five scenarios--sets of assumptions--to use as it
determines how many passengers can be served at Southern California airports
in 2020.
Under all five scenarios, LAX would be capped at no more than 70
million passengers a year. Two alternatives look at what happens if El Toro
isn't built. One would cap John Wayne Airport at 15 million, more than twice
what it now serves, and the rest would allow an unlimited number of
passengers there.
Under three alternatives, a high-speed rail line--at an estimated cost
of $6 billion--would take passengers from Irvine to Ontario International
and/or March Air Force Base. Traffic at most other airports would be
unlimited but still would be subject to practical and environmental
restrictions.
The flaw in past SCAG planning is not in calculating how many people
want to fly but in determining which airports they should use, said Dixon,
who defends SCAG's overall projections.
Orange County airport supporters, meanwhile, welcomed SCAG's
reexamination of its forecasts. New forecasts, particularly those limiting
LAX, will just put more focus on the need for travel alternatives such as El
Toro, they said.
"The demand is going to be there," said Bruce Nestande, a former Orange
County supervisor and president of the pro-El Toro group Citizens for Jobs
and the Economy. "Southern California needs another airport."
Still, some people are not convinced that just because airport demand
exists it has to be met.
SCAG planners ran a "what if" scenario on their computers 18 months ago
to see what would happen to demand if El Toro weren't built or LAX weren't
expanded. They found that half of the new demand simply would disappear,
said Tim Merwin, who was SCAG's aviation program manager for 20 years before
leaving late last year.
About a quarter of the demand would be redistributed to other airports
and modes of travel, and another quarter would be served by airports in
other regions.
Less service, though, means a loss of economic activity, Merwin said.
SCAG estimates that airport-related businesses generate as much as $800
million in revenue a year for every 1 million passengers. For El Toro's 22
million passengers predicted for 2020, that's $17.6 billion.
Using the argument of economic stagnation, Los Angeles Mayor Richard
Riordan unveiled an ambitious plan last year to expand LAX, saying the
region's economic future demands more capacity, particularly for
international flights and cargo.
But Riordan's proposal for building a fifth runway at the airport was
overwhelmed by residents' opposition, causing him to scale back the project
in June. The current plan, for 92 million passengers a year in 2020, carries
a price tag of $10 billion and would require the relocation of nearly 250
businesses.
Expansion foes, led by Los Angeles Councilwoman Ruth Galanter, argue
that LAX already shoulders too much of the burden for regional air travel.
In fact, the international airports at Los Angeles and Ontario handle
slightly more Orange County passengers, about 8 million a year, than John
Wayne Airport itself serves.
Galanter and Dixon both have pointed to high-speed rail as a way of
moving passenger demand to outlying airports that want the new business.
SCAG already has chosen a rail route linking LAX, Union Station and Ontario.
The link would cost $3.2 billion and would be completed in 2007.
Any rail alternatives, however, could face even tougher political
challenges than building an airport. And most outlying airports are less
attractive to the airline industry because they are farther from population
centers, businesses and tourist attractions.
A study released this month by the Los Angeles Department of World
Airports said Palmdale Airport, 60 miles north of Los Angeles, is simply too
far away to provide much relief for LAX. At most, Palmdale could handle no
more than 7 million passengers by 2020--a mere dent in the demand, the study
found.
Besides, sending more passengers inland has its limits. Ontario
International, for example, unveiled a new terminal last year that could
handle 20 million passengers a year. But the Air Resources Board has
restricted the amount of pollution in the air, thus limiting the number of
passengers to 12 million.
By urging SCAG to review both LAX and El Toro projects, Dixon had hoped
to enlist foes of LAX expansion in the fight against El Toro. He said he
opposes adding 30 million passengers to LAX because the traffic gridlock
alone would make it "easier to walk there."
But so far, he's had no luck winning Los Angeles allies.
"They clearly see El Toro as the solution to their problem," he said.
* * *
Airport Demand in 2020
With demand for air travel expected to climb in the next two decades,
the Southern California Assn. of Governments is examining several possible
scenarios, including how many passengers can be served if an El Toro airport
isn't built and Los Angeles International Airport isn't expanded. A look at
demand last year and estimates for 2020, in millions:
Airport 1998 2020
Los Angeles Intl. 61.2 94.2
El Toro (proposed) * 22.2
Ontario International 6.4 15.9
Burbank 4.7 9.2
John Wayne 7.5 7.0
Long Beach 0.6 2.8
Norton AFB * 1.8
Point Mugu * 1.8
Palm Springs 1.3 1.7
March AFB * 0.9
Oxnard 0.1 0.2
Palmdale * 0.1
George AFB * 0.1
Total 81.8 157.9
* Military or closed military airfields earmarked for civilian use.
Source: Southern California Assn. of Governments
*****************************************
California Aviation Coalition: Airport News List E-mail Commands
To subscribe to the Airport News List, send an email, from the email account you wish to receive your posts on, addressed to listserv@californiaaviation.org and place the following in the first line of the body of the message:
Subscribe airport YourFirstName YourLastName YourJobTitle YourAirport/Company
To unsubscribe from the Airport News List, send an email, from the email account you have been receiving your posts on, addressed to listserv@californiaaviation.org and place the following in the first line of the body of the message:
Unsubscribe airport YourFirstName YourLastName
If you have problems either subscribing or unsubscribing, email stepheni@cwnet.com